Probability is mathematical approach to quantify uncertainty.
Assume we are trying a estimate the probability of person y getting disease X.
Using statistics (say it occurs for every 100 people), the probability would be 1 %.
But if we talk from the perspective of person y, it should be 50 %(because there are two possible outcomes - getting and not getting the disease).
Is something wrong in this argument ?
6 comments:
Nice argument, got me thinking.
Probablity and statistics can be used by us to make people believe in what we say is true.
Nice blog.
hehe nice one!!
thinking from the perspective of y :
"what is the probability of me getting the disease? It must be number of cases where i get the disease divided by total number of cases. total number of cases includes one case in which i get the disease and 99 cases where i don't get it."
But i don't think the above is mathematically rigid :D
@harsha,
"It must be number of cases where i get the disease divided by total number of cases"
What do you exactly mean by case here ?
BTW, people could argue that my second way of determining probability is not right. Because getting the disease and not getting are not equiprobable events.
But I feel probability concept is not correctly defined.
suresh you got me wrong!
I meant what i said was not mathematically rigid... (explains why you asked me what case means!) The question is definitely valid.
Well written article.
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